There are those who are predicting the demise of the coalition, but I think this is highly unlikely. Unlikely because it is simply not in the interest of either parties to cut and run.
Nick Clegg can’t risk Cameron going to the country as it would mean a wipe out for Lib Dem MPs and David Cameron can’t afford to run the country as a minority government with the risk of a vote of no confidence hanging over his head, or go to the country asking for a new mandate.
Mr Cameron and his team will have already done the calculations and have concluded that although Labour’s current poll ratings are far from secure and would almost certainly go backwards during a campaign, to win a majority he needs to be at least eight points ahead in the polls and there has not been a turnaround of this magnitude during an election in the last 100 years.
Mr Cameron’s calculations are then further complicated, because although the Scottish elections suggest that Labour is flat on its back north of the border, the reality is that the results were in part a reflection of Labour’s B-team in Holyrood and a lacklustre campaign. These poor results are unlikely at a general election as the focus switches to Westminster and Labour’s A-team.
No, Mr Cameron cannot afford to call time on the Coalition until the new parliamentary boundaries come into force in 2013 and even out the inequalities in the electoral map.
So the moment of maximum danger may well have passed for the Coalition, but there is still considerable danger for Mr Clegg and the Lib Dems, who are at a crossroad. Listening to commentators and political
insiders, one thing is clear, absolutely nothing.
At the next election we are likely to see a return to two party politics and while both the Conservatives and Labour are ideally placed as the dominant forces of the right and the left, the Lib Dems have lost their identity.
Traditionally seen as in the left of centre block, coalition with the Conservatives means that Lib Dem supporters increasingly do not know what their party stands for.
And the risk here is if Clegg remains close to Cameron - sending a message they want to be on the right - recovery in the north of the country, where they need Labour voters to back them will be impossible. If they are seen to lurch left then their voters in the South may well desert them and return to the Conservative fold. Either of these scenarios do not look good for the Lib Dems.
The second thing for Mr Clegg to worry about is that unlike the Conservatives and Labour, the Lib Dem grassroots members can trigger a leadership contest. Whilst there is no evidence of this happening there are plenty of disgruntled party members who simply loathe the current tie up with the Conservatives.
Then there are the pretenders to Nick Clegg’s crown, but the clear front runner Chris Huhne has had a couple of difficult weeks, not least the allegations in Sunday’s papers and his intimate closeness to the Yes to AV Campaign, which turned a 20 point lead in the early polls into a resounding rejection of the proposed changes.
Tim Farron, the popular and increasingly outspoken President of the Party is certainly another leader aspirant, but he is still seen by many as inexperienced and untested.
Then there is the speculation about the Lib Dems splitting, a move that rolls back the clock to the 1980s and would violate that golden rule in politics, Ronald Reagan’s so called eleventh commandant of not fighting with your own party. Because as we saw in the 1990s, voters hate a divided and split party and are happy to punish them at the ballot box.
And finally there is the remote possibility of the Conservatives Party gobbling up the ‘Orange Bookers’ and letting the rest of the party, under a new leader, drift off into political obscurity, joining that group of parties usually denoted in the polls by that disparaging term ‘Other’.
While this is certainly the most fantastical of all the options, it is not without historical precedent as in 1912 the Conservative Party swallowed up the Liberal Unionists.
But what should the Deputy Prime Minister do?
The most sensible course of action for Nick Clegg and the Lib Dems may well be to do nothing and simply cling on to the hope that the economy will come good and the rising tide of prosperity will lift them from the rocks, but the US and world economy looks sluggish and is unlikely to deliver any significant boost to their support in the next couple of years. So this, the most likely course action, is not without risk and without visible signs of action from the Mr Clegg, this will only hasten a leadership challenge.
Originally posted 12th May 2011
No comments:
Post a Comment